Defense
Ukraine warns of looming WWIII
A top advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on social media this morning that “it looks like the Great War is just beginning.” This comes amidst growing concern among Ukraine watchers that without more aid from the United States, the tide of the war will quickly shift in Russia’s favor.
Zelensky recently warned that if Congress does not pass an additional $60 billion in aid for the war-torn nation, he would be forced to order a retreat.
Zelensky told The Washington Post that without aid they would have “no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimeter artillery rounds,” all things they deem necessary to prevent Russia’s further advance.
Ukraine has tried to paint Russia’s invasion as a threat to the entire NATO alliance, and specifically the United States. Zelensky warned CBS earlier this week that Putin would not stop at Ukraine, but would instead move to Poland, Germany, the Baltics, and will eventually require US soldiers to step in.
However the appetite for more aid to Ukraine is weakening. Congressional Republicans have stalled the major aid bill, with many uncomfortable spending so much on what they see as not a national security priority.
The outbreak of the war in Israel has also put Ukraine on the backburner in the minds of many Americans. Coverage of the Ukraine war has steadily declined on major media, and with it the attentions of Washington have as well.
However Ukraine warns that the longer the United States takes to supply more aid, the closer we inch towards a full scale war in Europe. Far worse than costing American dollars, Ukraine says that war would almost certainly cost American lives.
A clear divide has appeared between US President Joe Biden and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu. What on October 7th appeared to be a relatively amicable relationship has since soured, as the United States has decreased aid to the nation amid human rights concerns.
Netanyahu has opposed the ceasefire plan proposed by President Biden, and his government has even accused the President of wanting to end the war without defeating Hamas for his own political gain.
This rift is starting to show in the Biden campaign’s preparations for Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to congress. Addressing a joint session, the Biden team will have no oversight over what Netanyahu will say. This could let him use the time as a means to attack President Biden over a lack of support.
This may not be just worries, there is already evidence to back up the fact that Netanyahu is willing to attack President Biden if necessary. He has already released videos, including some in English, that attack Biden for withholding military aid.
Biden has reportedly not yet invited Netanyahu to speak with him while he is in Washington, a move which will likely only serve to exacerbate tensions.
Biden is struggling to balance support for both Israel and Palestine in his bid for re-election, as he attempts to please both the progressive and the pro-Israel members of his party.
The United States is currently involved in two major wars, one in Ukraine and one in Israel. In the past, it has seemed like we had laid out “red lines” that these countries could not cross when using United States equipment and receiving military aid. However those lines appear to be shifting yet again, deepening the intensity of both conflicts.
In Israel, the IDF has moved into Rafah. While the United States and many other allies of Israel around the world warned against this action, they now appear to have accepted it regardless of their previous statements.
In an interview with CNN earlier this month, Biden said “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah — they haven’t gone in Rafah yet — if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities — that deal with that problem.”
However the White House today clarified that Israel has not crossed their “red line,” and affirmed America’s support for Israel. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby expressed concern about Israel’s actions, but he clarified that this would not result in a shift in military policy.
The United States is also allowing Ukraine a longer leash to utilize its military capabilities. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told European leaders that the United States may consider allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory using American military equipment.
Previously, the United States has been careful to sanction anything that could be seen as a direct attack on Russian territory using US-made armaments. These changes come as Blinken signals that the United States feels the need to “adapt and adjust” their policies to the current situation in Ukraine.
President Biden has been hesitant to approve more aggressive action by Israel and Ukraine, with some observers citing his presidential campaign as a reason why he is being more cautious. Both wars have declined in popularity, and Israel’s actions have been especially controversial amongst Democratic supporters.
Following months of deadlock in the United States House of Representatives, a vote today approved roughly $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and other United States allies. The deal was passed with bipartisan approval of both Democrats and Republicans, following opposition to similar deals from both the far-left and far-right.
The majority of the aid, an estimated $61 billion, will be sent to Ukraine. Ukraine has expressed the need for further financial support from the United States in order to keep fighting Russia. They have recently expressed concerns that if this aid package were to fail, they would struggle to hold the line.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude for the aid on social media paltform X late on Saturday night. He specifically thanked Speaker Mike Johnson, who may have put his job on the line to get the bill across the finish line. There were renewed cries for his ousting from the far-right after the passage of the bill.
The bill also includes $26.4 billion for Israel to resupply their military as they fight against Hamas, and $8.1 billion to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Much of that will go to support Taiwan.
Netanyahu also thanked America for its support, saying on X (formerly known as Twitter,) “Thank you friends, thank you America!”
The bill still has to pass the Senate, however that is unlikely to be an obstacle. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has already made it clear that he supports the bill, and could bring it up for a vote as soon as Tuesday morning. President Biden has also expressed his support for the aid package, and said that he would sign it as soon as it passed the Senate.